Tuesday was a mostly negative day for our markets. Spot corn closed down 5 3/4, spot soybeans closed down 10 1/2, harvest winter wheat closed down 10 3/4 and harvest spring wheat closed up 4. In the overnight trade corn and the wheat sector are negative with soybeans now on the positive side. Oil closed down $2.71 yesterday at $93.89 per barrel. It is weaker again this morning with it now trading at $90.29 per barrel. Our dollar started out yesterday morning at $0.725 US and has trended mostly lower since then. This morning it is currently valued at $0.723 US.
The nearby corn market has traded lower for 4 of the last 5 trading days and has fallen below all of the 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. Some of the risk premium from the war against Iran seems to be leaving the market and also increased prospects of a good crop this year in the US is making the supply side look stronger. It is thought that managed money has been liquidating some of their long position (looking for prices to go up) and this has brought forward further pressure to pull prices lower.
Nearby soybean prices have also fallen below both their 20 and 50 day moving averages. Prices fell yesterday even though soybean oil prices rallied to the positive side with continued strong demand on the biodiesel market supporting this. US soybeans are currently just over $1 per bushel more expensive on the world market then soybeans from Brazil. This market is looking to see if China is going to step up with soybean purchases that would go towards their new agreement with the Trump Administration that they still have not confirmed is even an agreement.
Yesterday the USDA released their Weekly Crop Progress Report. Corn plantings came in at 86% complete. This is up 10% from last week and compares to 86% planted at this time last year and the 5 year average of 83% planted. They also reported that 60% of this crop is now emerged. This is up from 39% last week and compares to last year’s 65% emerged and the 5 year average of 58% emerged for this time of the year.
Soybean plantings came in at 79% complete. This is up from 67% last week and compares to 75% at this time last year and the 5 year average of only 68%. They also reported that 49% of this crop is now emerged. This is up from 32% last week and compares to last year at 48% emerged and the 5 year average of 40% emerged.
Spring wheat came in at 86% planted. This was up from 73% last week and compares to last year’s 86% planted and the 5 year average of 79% planted.
The good to excellent rating for their winter wheat crop decreased 1% week over week to come in at 26%. Last year at this time this crop had a good to excellent rating of 50%.
This report should be considered neutral to slightly bearish for corn and soybeans with their crop getting planted and strong emergence numbers. For spring wheat the report is mostly neutral but is should once again be considered bullish for winter wheat.
The peace plan between Iran and the US seems to be in jeopardy this morning with reports of bombings. It is interesting though that crude oil prices have trended lower this week even with the current peace plan possibly falling apart.
Geoffrey Guy | 613-880-2707
Bob Orr | 613-720-1271
Tony Mitchell | 613-227-2525
Office | 613-489-0956
