North Gower Grains

Monday, June 15, 7:24 am

Friday was another mostly negative day for our markets. Harvest corn closed up 3/4, harvest soybeans closed down 2, harvest winter wheat closed down 2 1/4 and harvest spring wheat closed down 3 1/2. In the overnight trade the commodity board is still all negative. Oil closed down $2.83 on Friday at $84.88 per barrel. It is down another $4.60 this morning currently priced at $80.28. Our dollar traded between a low of $0.714 US and a high of $0.716 US on Friday with it closing out near the bottom of the range.  This morning it is stronger with it now valued at $0.715 US.

A trade deal between the US and Iran was announced over the weekend by Pakistan, who has been the mediator between the two countries. Pakistan’s prime minister Shehbaz Sharif said an official signing ceremony would be on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland. Trump later posted on social media “oil will flow” indicating the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices have pulled back sharply, with the grain market following.

Friday was somewhat of a disappointing day for our markets.  They all started on the negative side then traded positive before the noon hour before pulling back (mostly to the negative) as the trading day progressed. Our markets lack any significant news to drive prices higher either on the supply or demand sides. Current weather patterns in the US are favourable for new crop growth with generally enough moisture available now and in the 2-week forecast to keep the newly seeded crops growing.

The corn market has traded lower for last the 3 weeks and has actually traded lower for 5 of the last 6 weeks. With the increased production that the USDA projected yesterday for both Brazil and Argentina with Thursday’s WASDE report they both will have new record high production levels.  When this is included with the record production out of the US last fall these three countries will produce about 25 billion bushels for the 1025-2026 production year.  This is up from just over 22 billion bushels the previous year.  These 3 countries make up for 75% of the world exports in corn.  All in all, this is bearish news for the corn market going forward with the supply side dominating the headlines.

Last week was a mixed week for our markets. The corn market was down $2 per tonne across the board. Spot soybeans were down $4 per tonne with this year’s harvest down $2 per tonne and harvest 2027 ended up even for the week. Winter wheat was down $2 per tonne on both the spot market and this year’s harvest.  For harvest 2027 winter wheat ended up even. Spring wheat ended up down $1 per tonne on the spot market and $2 per tonne for both this year and next year harvests.