Monday was a recently rare positive day for our markets. Harvest corn closed up 6 1/4, harvest soybeans closed up 1 1/2, harvest winter wheat closed up 4 and harvest spring wheat closed up 11 1/2. In the overnight trade all of our markets remain on the positive side. Oil closed up $0.17 yesterday at $62.14 per barrel. It is weaker in trading this morning with it now valued at $61.97 per barrel. Our dollar has traded between a low of $0.716 US and a high of $0.719 US over the last 24 hours. This morning it is currently valued at $0.717 US.
It was nice to see prices close positive yesterday and stay on that track this morning. Wheat prices are leading our markets higher with concerns of the current crop in China as their main wheat growing regions are being hard hit with a heat wave. We should note that China usually grows 18% of the world wheat crop but consumes 19% of the same crop. For most years this usually makes them an importer of wheat and with their current production concerns they could become a major importer over the next year.
In the corn market speculative funds have gone from a massive long position of over 450,000 contracts to just 18,000 contracts since mid-February of this year. With the USDA projecting record production this year in the US and the strong production in South America speculative funds are on the verge of switching to a short position. They will most likely be very responsive to weather this growing year and how it will affect the current crop.
Yesterday the USDA released their weekly Crop Progress Report. Corn plantings increased 16% week over week to sit at 78% planted. This compares to 67% at this time last year and the 5 year average of 73% planted. They also report that 50% of this crop is now emerged. This compares to 38% at this time last year and the 5 year average of 40%.
Soybeans plantings increased 18% week over week to sit at 66% planted. This compares to 50% at this time last year and the 5 year average of 53% planted. Emergence for this crop increased from 17% last week up to 34% this week. Last year at this time 25% of the crop was emerged and the 5 year average is only 23%.
Spring wheat plantings increased 16% week over week to sit at 82% planted. Emergence for this crop increased 18% week over week to sit at 45%. This compares to 40% last year at this time and the 5 year average of 34%.
The good to excellent rating for their winter wheat crop decreased 2% week over week to sit at 52%. This is still 3% above the good to excellent rating at this time last year. They also reported that 64% of this crop is now headed. This compares to 67% headed at this time last year and the 5 year average of 58%.
This report should be considered bearish for prices for corn, soybeans and spring wheat with the continued fast planting pace and strong emergence recorded for each crop. For winter wheat this report should be considered bullish for prices due to the decreased good to excellent ratings.
If you would like to talk about the markets or price some of your crop for the future or in store, please reach out to us via phone or email to info@northgowergrains.com. Prices quoted herein are for product at our elevator.
Delores Seiter | 613-880-7458
Bob Orr | 613-720-1271
Office | 613-489-0956
