Monday was a mixed day for our markets. Harvest corn closed unchanged, harvest soybeans closed down 2, harvest winter wheat closed up 3 1/4 and harvest spring wheat closed down 1 1/4. In the overnight trade corn and soybeans are mixed with the wheat sector now positive. Oil closed up $0.76 yesterday at $91.30 per barrel. It is weaker this morning with it now valued at $89.16 per barrel. Our dollar has traded between a low of $0.716 US and a high of $0.718 US over the last 24 hours. This morning it is at the high end of the range with it currently valued at $0.718 US.
The steep negative trend for prices took a break yesterday with our markets rallying after starting the day with larger negatives. Export sales were announced for last week in the US with corn coming in strong and soybeans including a few sales to unknown destinations that some traders think are sales to China. Remember our markets are waiting for confirmation that China has returned as a purchaser and when they do it will most definitely be a bright light for prices.
The corn harvest has started for the Safrinha corn crop in Brazil and is also progressing well in Argentina. With the monthly WASDE report due out on Thursday we could see the USDA increase corn production from South America. There is also thought that the USDA may increase exports of corn out of the US and increased soybean crush numbers for the US. This would decrease carryout stock levels for both crops and would be supportive prices. No major changes are expected with US production until at least next month with the spring crops just being planted.
The USDA released their Weekly Crop Progress Report yesterday. Corn plantings are now reported at 97% complete. This is up from 93% last week and compares to 96% both from last year and the 5 year average. They also reported a good to excellent rating for this crop of 67%. This is unchanged from last week and compares to the 71% rating from last year at this time.
For the soybean crop the plantings increased 5% week over week to come in at 92% planted. This compares to 89% at this time last year and the 5 year average of 88% planted. The good to excellent rating for this crop is down 1% from last week and came in at 65%. Last year at this time this crop had a 68% good to excellent rating.
The winter wheat harvest is reported at 11% complete. This is up from 5% last week and is well ahead of last year’s 4% completed and the 5 year average of 6% completed. The good to excellent rating for this crop decreased 1% week over week to come in at only 25%. Last year at this time it had a 54% good to excellent rating.
Spring wheat plantings increased 4% week over week to come in at 98% planted. This compares to 98% at this time last year and the 5 year average of 95% planted. The good to excellent rating for this crop increased from 47% last week up to 52% this week. Last year at this time this crop had a 53% good to excellent rating.
This report should be considered mostly neutral for corn and soybeans with plantings right on pace and stable good to excellent ratings. With harvest progressing well in winter wheat the report is also neutral for this crop. In spring wheat the stronger good to excellent rating is slightly bearish for prices going forward.
Geoffrey Guy | 613-880-2707
Bob Orr | 613-720-1271
Tony Mitchell | 613-227-2525
Office | 613-489-0956
