Tuesday was a mixed day for our markets. Spot corn closed up 1/4, spot soybeans closed up 5 1/4, spot winter wheat closed down 2 and spot spring wheat closed down 2 3/4. In the overnight trade corn, soybeans and spring wheat are positive with winter wheat still on the negative side. Oil closed down $0.68 yesterday at $65.63 per barrel. It is stronger in trading this morning with it now valued at $65.95 per barrel. Our dollar started out yesterday morning at $0.729 US and then trended higher going up to $0.731 US in the overnight session. It has pulled back just a bit this morning with it currently valued at $0.730 US.
More confusion has arisen with the tariff situation in the US. The new tariff has been set at 10% not the 15% that President Trump stated that it would be. It is unclear at this time whether they will be increasing it to 15% or leaving it at the 10% that has been implemented. One thing I did see this morning is that most of the fertilizer being imported into the US will remain tariff free. Unlike our government who put tariffs on imported fertilizer from Russia the US government is trying to support their farmers’ not just give them extra costs!
Soybean prices remain supported as an announcement is expected any day out of the White House on the renewable fuels file. It is widely expected that they will increase guidelines / targets for renewable diesel which will have a direct effect on the amount of soybean oil required. This of course supports soybean prices going forward. Based on current prices the soybean crush margin in the US is about $2 per bushel which is a historically strong level. The other main reason supporting soybeans is of course thoughts that China will still purchase older crop soybeans. Finally the lack of US farmer ownership of old crop soybeans also supports the market. As we have noted two of the three reasons are related to politics and only the farmer ownership is related to supply.
The recent wheat rally has been fueled by dry weather in most of the US HRW wheat growing regions. This includes Kansas which grows roughly 22% of the US total wheat crop. The extended weather forecast (8-18 days) is projecting rain for this region and that is probably the main reason why prices are now falling back. The SRW wheat market (which is the majority of wheat grown in Eastern Ontario) has participated in this rally but not nearly as much as the HRW wheat market.
Just looking at the soybeans and wheat it looks like politics could still bring a stronger rally in the soybean market. Wheat is looking like it is more weather dependent and what way prices will go. With uncertainty in both markets it looks like a good time to get something booked for 2026 production. Take some risk off the table and get into the market. Give us a call anytime to discuss your specific farm marketing requirements.
Delores Seiter | 613-880-7458
Bob Orr | 613-720-1271
Tony Mitchell | 613-227-2525
Office | 613-489-0956
