Thursday was a mixed day for our markets. Spot corn closed down 2, spot soybeans closed down 5, harvest winter wheat closed up 3/4 and harvest spring wheat closed up 3 3/4. In the overnight trade corn and the wheat sector are negative with soybeans on the positive side. Oil closed up $11.42 on Thursday at $111.54 per barrel. It is weaker this morning with it now trading at $110.29 per barrel. Our dollar traded between a low of $0.718 US and a high of $0.722 US on Thursday with it closing out at $0.719 US. After briefly going down to $0.715 US in the overnight trading it has bounced back up to $0.718 US this morning.
Soybean oil was similar to all vegetable oils on Thursday as they were supported by the higher price of crude oil. It has jumped up with uncertainty about supply caused by the current war. Unfortunately, this support did not come into the soybean market as they closed negative for the day.
When looking at our markets we need to keep in mind that managed money currently has their largest net long (looking for prices to go up) since May 2022 in our commodities. The long position is mostly in corn and soybeans with the overall wheat position close to zero. Remember if the war ends soon and/or China does not become more active in our markets the funds could quickly start liquidating their position. If this occurs, we would most likely see prices fall and most likely fall hard.
President Trump is stirring things up again with more talk about the war against Iran. He has given them a new deadline of Tuesday to open up the Strait of Hormuz or he will bomb their power plants and other infrastructure. How this will affect the energy markets and our markets today and this week is something that we will all be watching.
It is interesting to see wheat futures lower this morning even with some what should be positive for prices news out of Russia. It has been reported that Ukraine has sunk a Russian vessel that was holding wheat for export. Russia has responded with more drone attacks. Usually this would support wheat prices but today the market is almost ignoring this news. It seems that weekend rains over some of the winter wheat growing regions in the US is pulling prices lower this morning. Rain makes grain and this war is old news!
Delores Seiter | 613-880-7458
Bob Orr | 613-720-1271
Tony Mitchell | 613-227-2525
Office | 613-489-0956
