Monday was again a negative day for our markets. Spot corn closed down 13 1/4, harvest soybeans closed down 10 3/4, harvest winter wheat closed down 8 and harvest spring wheat closed down 6 3/4. In the overnight trade all of our markets remain on the negative side. Oil closed down $1.39 yesterday at $68.37 per barrel. It is weaker again in trading this morning with it now valued at $67.46 per barrel. Our dollar had a high yesterday morning of $0.695 US and a low in the afternoon of $0.688 US when it was announced that the tariffs would go ahead. It has bounced back since then with it currently valued this morning at $0.694 US.
We used to use the term ‘Turnaround Tuesday’ a lot as we get a positive day after Monday training being negative. The new terminology will now be ‘Tariff Tuesday’ as this is the day that US tariffs are placed on Canada and Mexico at 25% and an additional 10% tariff on China. The trade war has begun.
Our markets had another negative day yesterday after starting the day out mixed. The threats of the tariffs being implemented and what any counter tariffs would look like hung over the markets like a black cloud. Over the next couple of days we should see what the counter tariffs will be and the analysts will be projecting how they will affect prices going forward.
Soybean prices closed below the 100 day moving average and have this morning fell below the $10 per bushel mark on the CBOT for the nearby month. This was seen as a strong technical support point. The harvest in Brazil is progressing well with it now reported at 50% complete which is 2% ahead of last year’s pace. Their soybeans are available for shipments on the world market and will almost completely shut out the US for new soybean sales for this spring and summer. Soybeans from Brazil are priced lower in the world market then soybeans from the US.
On the positive side for soybeans the soybean crush in the US for January came in 212.5 million bushels which is a new record high for January. This was above the average trade estimate of 211 million bushels but was down from the December high of 217.2 million bushels. We should note that in January of 2024 they only crushed 194.9 million bushes. Demand for soybean oil being utilised in biodiesel continues to support crush numbers.
Some more news from around the world for the wheat market. Prices in Russia did not increase this week after being increased for three consecutive weeks. Even though supply for exports is being limited the demand side has decreased and they were not able to further increase prices. New production numbers in Australia has their wheat crop increasing by 31% from last year up to 34.1 million tonnes. This number is well above average production levels in the past from Australia. The extra wheat will make it into the world market and will help to make up for reduced supply available this spring from Russia.
If you would like to talk about the markets or price some of your crop for the future or in store, please reach out to us via phone or email to info@northgowergrains.com. Prices quoted herein are for product at our elevator.
Delores Seiter | 613-880-7458
Bob Orr | 613-720-1271
Office | 613-489-0956
