Wednesday was a mostly positive day for our markets. Spot corn closed up 3/4, spot soybeans closed down 1/2, spot winter wheat closed up 9 1/4 and spot spring wheat closed up 5 3/4. In the overnight all of our markets have settled on the positive side. Oil closed up $2.86 yesterday at $65.19 per barrel. It is stronger in trading again this morning with it now valued at $66.26 per barrel. Our dollar started out yesterday morning at $0.733 US and then trended lower going down to $0.730 US late in the trading day. It has come back up just a bit this morning with it currently valued at $0.731 US.
Wheat prices rallied yesterday and were supported by reports out of Ukraine about concerns with their winter wheat crop. More specifically a recent thaw period followed by a flash freeze has resulted in an ice pack. There is concern that this will result in winter kill which will decrease the yield going forward. When talking about Ukraine we need to remember that when their war with Russia ends it will be a negative for wheat and corn prices. They will ramp up their exports of these commodities almost immediately after the war ends which will put negative pressure on prices.
Export sales of our three crops out of the US are telling a couple of different stories this year. Corn exports are up 44% this year compared to last year. This is an increase of about 8 million tonnes. Soybeans exports on the other hand are down 33% this year compare to last year which is a decrease of about 12 million tonnes. Overall wheat exports are up this year by about 19% which is about 3 million tonnes. The strong corn exports have kept prices somewhat firm even after the record harvest from last fall. We all know that soybean exports out of the US are directly affected by political events (China/US). The stronger wheat exports are nice even with the record large world wheat production last year and the high level of stocks held.
Today the USDA releases their 2026 crop plantings estimates and also their initial yield projections. Average analyst pre report estimates have corn plantings coming in at 94.9 million acres, soybeans at 84.9 million acres and wheat acres at 44.8 million acres. Yield estimates are kept at trend line yields. This report is normally not a major market mover but this is not a given. It really is just reinforcing that soybean acres are coming up a bit with the majority of those acres being switched from corn.
Delores Seiter | 613-880-7458
Bob Orr | 613-720-1271
Tony Mitchell | 613-227-2525
Office | 613-489-0956
