Thursday was a mostly negative day for our markets. Spot corn closed down 3 1/4, spot soybeans closed up 3 1/4, harvest winter wheat closed down 6 1/4 and harvest spring wheat closed down 4 3/4. In the overnight trade corn and winter wheat are negative, soybeans are positive and spring wheat is mixed. Oil closed up $3.46 yesterday at $97.87 per barrel. It is weaker in trading this morning with it now trading at $97.50 per barrel. Our dollar traded between a low of $0.722 US and a high of $0.724 US over the last 24 hours. This morning it is at the high end of the orange with it currently valued at $0.724.
The USDA released their April WASDE report yesterday. They did not change the balance sheet for old crop corn with no change in carry out stocks for this year. For soybeans they decreased soybean exports for this year but increased the soybean crush amount by the exact same amount. Net result was no change in carryout stocks for soybeans also. Wheat stocks were increased based on higher import amounts into the US. World wheat socks were also increased with the majority of this coming from increased levels in India. We should note that this is the largest amount of wheat ever held around the world. This is most definitely bearish for wheat prices going forward.
With corn prices pulling back a bit more yesterday nearby markets are now below both the 50 and 100 day moving averages. This is a poor technical sign for the market and can usually result in more negative prices to come.
Our markets continue to be affected by the war in Iran. With talk about whether the current ceasefire is going to hold or not and whether the Strait of Hormuz is really open or not how the markets will react going forward is up for discussion.
Reports out of Brazil has a proposal to increase their mandated ethanol blend from 30% up to 32%. The majority of their ethanol is made from sugar cane however they are expanding their corn-based ethanol production significantly this year. As a comparison in Canada and the US the ethanol blend is capped at 10%. In the US they have increased the blend up to 15% on an optional basis, not a mandated basis.
Friday’s thought: You begin to understand life better when you stop chasing what you want and start appreciating what you already have!
Delores Seiter | 613-880-7458
Bob Orr | 613-720-1271
Tony Mitchell | 613-227-2525
Office | 613-489-0956
