Thursday was a mostly positive day for our markets. Spot corn closed up 1 1/4, spot soybeans closed down 4 3/4, harvest winter wheat closed up 13 1/4 and harvest spring wheat closed up 9. In the overnight trade corn, soybeans and winter wheat are positive with spring wheat on the negative side. Oil closed up $2.89 yesterday at $95.85 per barrel. It is stronger again this morning with it now trading at $96.96 per barrel. Our dollar had a high yesterday morning of $0.732 US and a low in early evening of $0.729 US. It has bounced back since then with it currently valued this morning at $0.731 US.
Wheat prices were supported yesterday by an updated drought monitor released in the US which continues to show dryness in the majority of the HRW wheat growing regions. This contract closed at its highest price in the nearby since mid-2024. As we have noted before if one part of the wheat sector rallies it normally pulls the other two sectors higher and this continues to be the case this week. Where this market will stop is unknown but we must remember that US wheat is already too expensive on the world market and this should keep a lid on prices.
Lots of talk this week about any new deal between China and the US and how it could affect the soybean market going forward. If the meeting between the two Presidents does go ahead next month soybean trade will most likely be front and center. Soybean exports in the US are currently 18% behind last year’s pace however this is right in line with USDA projections for the full year which was 18% lower than last year.
Corn exports out of the US continue to support this market. Exports are currently at 74.1 million tonnes for the year which is well ahead of last year’s 57.7 million tonnes at this time. USDA had projected 83.8 million tonnes for the full marketing year and this number should easily be eclipsed. Even with the strong exports carryout stocks in the US are still projected to be roughly 2.0 billion bushels which is a massive amount and will help to keep a lid on prices.
Nothing really new to mention today about the war against Iran. We all will be watching what occurs over the weekend and will try to figure out how this will possibly affect our markets next week.
Friday’s thought: Never reply when you are angry! Never make a promise when you are happy! Never make a decision when you are sad!
Delores Seiter | 613-880-7458
Bob Orr | 613-720-1271
Tony Mitchell | 613-227-2525
Office | 613-489-0956
