Monday was another negative day for our markets. Spot corn closed down 2 1/2, spot soybeans closed down 4, spot winter wheat closed down 10 1/4 and spot spring wheat closed down 6 1/4. In the overnight trade corn, soybeans and winter wheat are now positive with spring wheat still on the negative side. Oil closed down $3.07 yesterday at $62.14 per barrel. It is stronger in trading this morning with it now valued at $62.37 per barrel. Our dollar started out yesterday morning at $0.733 US and then went down to $0.730 US around noon. It has stayed within that range since then with it currently valued this morning at $0.731 US.
Yesterday it looks like our markets were dealing more with outside factors and how they could affect our markets then truly supply and demand issues. The reality is how outside events affect our markets is all related to the money flow and where the money flows to is the markets that go up. Where the money comes from those markets go down. Yesterday the money flow really was not interested in our markets and as such prices came down.
Soybean crush data came in for December in the US and they crushed a record amount for any December on record at 230 million bushels. This was up from 220.5 million bushels in November and 217.7 million bushels in December of last year. This was the second largest monthly crush figure on record just behind October’s 236.3 million bushels. So far this year they have crushed 892 million bushels which is 7.5% ahead of last year’s pace. We should note that the USDA had projected a year over year increase in crush of 5.1%. Although exports are lower this year for US soybeans the crush data is definitely bringing some support for prices.
On the negative side for soybeans more and more private forecasters are increasing their production estimates for Brazil for this year. All of the updated forecasts have Brazil producing above 180 million tonnes. It is reported that the current harvest is at about 10% and that they have started to plant their safrinha corn crop. It is also reported that about 10% of the expected acreage is already planted.
Finally on soybeans they did close well of their low yesterday and have rallied to the positive side this morning. The trade deal announced yesterday between the US and India most likely provided some support for this market. India is a major importer of soybean oil and the marketplace is probably thinking that the deal would result in increased purchases by India.
Delores Seiter | 613-880-7458
Bob Orr | 613-720-1271
Tony Mitchell | 613-227-2525
Office | 613-489-0956
