Thursday, January 8, 2026, 7:00 am

Wednesday was a positive day for our markets.  Spot corn closed up 2 3/4, spot soybeans closed up 10 3/4, spot winter wheat closed up 7 1/2 and spot spring wheat closed up 3 1/4.  In the overnight trade corn is negative, soybeans are mixed and the wheat sector is still positive.  Oil closed down $1.14 yesterday at $55.99 per barrel.  It is stronger in trading this morning with it now valued at $56.82 per barrel.  Our dollar had high of $0.725 US yesterday morning and then traded lower going down to $0.720 US in the overnight session.  It has come back up just a bit this morning with it now currently valued at $0.721 US.

Row crops rallied yesterday after pulling back on Tuesday.  Traders must be thinking that Monday’s USDA report has the potential to bring some bullish data.  Let’s take a look today at the corn balance sheet and what the USDA may adjust.

• They will announce the final yield for corn for last year. This is expected to come down but to be real bullish it needs to decrease to probably close to 180 bushels per acre from the current 184 bushels per acre.
• Acres harvested are rumoured to be increasing. This would be very bearish with the increased production.
• Exports will have to be increased based on the strong export pace so far this year out of the US.
• Feed and residual usage in the US will most likely be decreased as most analysts feel this was overstated in previous reports.
• Corn used in ethanol production may be decreased. The USDA had previously pegged an 8% increase for the year however the current trend is closer to 3%.
• On the world stage the USDA could be increasing production from South America. Also what they say about production levels in Ukraine and China will also be interesting.

All in all this report has the potential to be a major market mover for the corn market either way.  What data the USDA decides to change with this report and how bearish or bullish they are with the data could affect corn farmers for this coming crop year. 

The winter wheat market has rallied some this week with potential weather concerns in the main winter wheat growing region of the US.  Recent warm weather patterns have removed much of the limited snow cover and this has exposed the wheat to the effects of the next freezing cold period.  It seems every year they are concerned the wheat will come out of dormancy with a warm period and then be damaged when the freezing temperatures hit again.  This story really does not get told completely until next spring when the potential damage can be fully observed.